2008 Oscar Predictions

Best Music (Song): Falling Slowly (Once), Raise It Up (August Rush), Happy Working Song (Enchanted), So Close (Enchanted), That's How You Know (Enchanted)

I've only seen Once, but maybe that doesn't matter so much as I have heard all these songs, and I could see 1,000 different movies and not find a song as beautiful as Falling Slowly. On its own, it is gorgeous, but in the movie, it just becomes perfect. The scene in which we first hear this song is hands-down the most affecting scene in the film. There should be no contest here. I would like to mention that Eddie Vedder wrote and recorded some very moving songs for Into the Wild, and one of those should be here instead of three (yes, three) songs from Enchanted.

Should Win: Falling Slowly
Will Win: Falling Slowly

Best Adapted Screenplay: Atonement, Away From Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

I believe all of the nominees are in contention here, which makes predicting a winner pretty interesting. I'm going to relegate Atonement and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly to the "really good, but not quite exciting enough" category. The award could go to the talented young actress Sarah Polley (age 29) who surprised everyone by writing AND directing Away From Her. There Will Be Blood is probably the most ambitious and difficult adaptation, but it could be a little too strange for some voters. Lastly, No Country for Old Men was adapted from a popular, well-respected novel and could ride what I see as a possible No Country wave.

Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Best Original Screenplay: Juno, Lars and the Real Girl, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, The Savages

I think we have a clearer winner in this category, but I'm going to start again by dismissing two from contention: Lars and the Real Girl and The Savages. Lars is a personal favorite, but very quirky, and the movie actually got some pretty harsh reviews. The Savages is funny and biting and deals with tricky subject matter (caring for ailing parents), but is too small and just doesn't have the momentum for a win. Michael Clayton has a decent chance, but I am in the distinct minority that thinks this movie is overrated. It is an extremely solid, yet traditional, legal thriller. A good John Grisham-type movie. Did it really deserve 7 nominations? I don't think so. So that leaves us Juno and Ratatouille. I think Ratatouille has a real chance as Pixar does incredible things with animation and not just the visuals, but the story. It would be thrilling for an animated feature to win this category, but the movie will most certainly gets it due in the Best Animated Feature category. My prediction, therefore, is Juno. It certainly has the most buzz as the writer (named Diablo Cody, no less) is a young woman, former stripper (yes), and this is her first script. Plus, it is funny, fresh, and moving.

Should Win: Juno
Will Win: Juno

Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild), Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

I love the supporting actor/actress categories this year; there are a lot of good performances. Hoffman, I think, has the least chance of winning. Charlie Wilson's War wasn't well-received and wasn't seen by many. Plus, most critics contend Hoffman gave better performances in two other films this year -- The Savages and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. Wilkinson gave the best performance in a movie full of good performances, so he definitely has a shot. In most years, Affleck would likely be my favorite as his natural demeanor and voice (which is a little offbeat) works perfectly in The Assassination of Jesse James. He commands your attention anytime he is on the screen. However, I just have a special affection for Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild. It was an outstanding movie that was completely overlooked, and Holbrook was heartbreaking in just 10 minutes or so of screentime. All that being said, Bardem will win. He created the sort of indelible character ("call it, friendo") that the Academy loves to honor. Although it is easier to play such an extreme character I think, he was terribly frightening and simply made No Country for Old Men unforgettable.
Should Win: Holbrook (but Affleck's a close second)
Will Win: Bardem

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There), Ruby Dee (American Gangster), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

This category is so close it is unbelievable. Ronan has no chance. She was good, yes, but very young and completely absent from the 130-minute Atonement after the first 20-30 minutes. As far as the other four actresses, I'd place their chances of winning at 25%, 25%, 25%, and 25%. It really is that close. I regret that I didn't get to see all the performances, so I'll start with the two I didn't see. You don't have to see a Cate Blanchett movie to know she was phenomenal -- I've never seen her anything less. Given that, plus the fact that she actually plays a male character in I'm Not There, she has a good shot. Dee fills the sentimental favorite slot. I've heard she gives a good performance, but what really gives her a chance is the fact that she is 83 and has never been nominated before. She's been in Hollywood a long time and has also made a name for herself as a civil rights activist. I have no doubt she'll get a lot of votes. So, Ryan and Swinton. Ryan was so utterly convincing as a sleazy mom in Gone Baby Gone that when I first saw interviews with her, I could hardly believe it was the same person. I was actually confusing the character and the actor, which as a person who sees 40-60 movies a year, I never do. Swinton, too, was superb. Her role was a lot less flashy, but they are going to want to give Michael Clayton some kind of award, so it may well be here. And as a last note, even in this jam-packed category, one name is missing: Jennifer Garner from Juno. She had the difficult task of playing a cool, sometimes unlikable character, but one of her scenes is absolutely the most moving scene in the film.

Should Win: Ryan
Will Win: Swinton (or Ryan, or Dee, or Blanchett - ha). No, I'll stick with Swinton.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away From Her), Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose), Laura Linney (The Savages), Ellen Page (Juno)

You know, this is another close one. The actress least likely to win, but probably my favorite, is Blanchett. Honestly, she is brilliant in most everything. I loved her in The Golden Age, although the movie was really just a pale imitation of the first Elizabeth film Blanchett did. That is the main reason she won't win here. Linney is also unlikely to win; her nomination was somewhat of a surprise and doesn't seem to have the juice needed to carry her to the top. I think it is a toss-up, however, between Christie, Cotillard, and Page. Christie was quite moving in her role as an Alzheimer's patient; she is a non-flashy actress that comes in, does super work, and then goes back to living her quiet life. I think the Academy appreciates that. She is also the sentimental favorite as she last won in this category 35-40 years ago. Cotillard has been roundly praised for completely disappearing into her performance as Edith Piaf. I can respect this, but as I've mentioned in the past (with Ray, for example), I don't think imitation (even perfect imitation) is as difficult as creating a character from scratch. That leaves Page, who lit up the screen in Juno. She is young, hip, talented, and has all the buzz. It will be tough to beat Christie though.

Should Win: Blanchett
Will Win: Christie

Best Actor: George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Ellah), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Finally, an easier category where I don't have to think so hard! If anyone other than Day-Lewis wins here, it will be the upset of the night. And rightfully so. His performance was simply mesmerizing. You could not look away from him. It is an over-the-top, scenery-chewing performance, but that's how it had to be for the sprawling, off-kilter There Will Be Blood. So, on to the also-rans. Jones was very good in an overlooked movie, Mortensen was completely convincing as a Russian mobster, and Clooney gave his usual smart, solid performance. I'm not quite sure what Depp is doing here as it is hard to pinpoint what exactly he was trying to do in Sweeney Todd. I mean, he was singing and dancing of course, and acting completely insane, but sometimes deadly serious, sometimes with sarcasm and humor, but never enough self-awareness that he was in an over-the-top, comically grotesque, campy movie. It was Depp's partner in the film, Helena Bonham Carter, who should have been nominated.

Should Win: Day-Lewis
Will Win: Day-Lewis

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Coen Brothers (No Country for Old Men), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton), Jason Reitman (Juno), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)

I think this is race between the Coens and Schnabel. Anderson's There Will Be Blood is too strange (with an ending that some feel is from a different movie), Gilroy's Michael Clayton is too traditional (and more of an acting & plot-driven movie), and Reitman's Juno is too small (it doesn't explore the grand themes or have the grand visions of the other films). Everything in No Country for Old Men fits together perfectly -- the acting, the cinematography, the story. The directors have assembled the puzzle pieces of this movie seamlessly. With The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Schnabel has used innovation, creativity, and imagination to present the story of a man who cannot move or even speak.

Should Win: Coens
Will Win: Coens

Best Picture: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

I did enjoy all these movies to varying degrees (even Atonement, which was certainly my least favorite), but I'm longing for a little shake-up in the Best Picture category. I am feeling dissatisfied in recent years. I would love to see two categories for Best Picture, one for films that cost more than $50 million to make and one for films that cost less. Or I'd simply like to see the category expanded to 10 nominees instead of 5. There were a lot of great movies this year, some large, some small, some quirky, some traditional. Where is Into the Wild? The Assassination of Jesse James? Persepolis? The Lookout? Once? If you haven't seen or heard of any of those, you should definitely put them on your Netflix!

Alas, I should focus on reality. Atonement is the first we can mark off our list. It got the worst reviews of the bunch, was overly long, and pretty self-conscious in that "We're making an Oscar movie" kind of way. Michael Clayton is a super solid legal thriller, but Best Picture? What impact did it have? Did it bring anything new to the table? Will you think about it after you leave the theater? There Will Be Blood is the most ambitious of the lot, which can be good and bad. It definitely brings something different and won't soon be forgotten. The last 15-20 minutes really go off the deep end, but still shouldn't a Best Picture winner be challenging? For pure fun and entertainment, there's Juno. I don't think it is in any technical way the best film, but really, is it so bad to give the award to a crowd-pleasing, highly-entertaining (yet creative and original) movie? The likely winner, however, is No Country for Old Men. It is very well-made, and unlike Michael Clayton, did have an impact, did bring something new to the table.

Should Win: There Will Be Blood (No Country a close, close second)
Will Win: No Country for Old Men